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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 37 games
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 31 game
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 29 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 29 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Fantasy · 23 games
43%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 49 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 48 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 44 games
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 40 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 37 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 35 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 33 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 27 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
637 picks · 685 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
502 picks · 325 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
433 picks · 918 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
419 picks · 908 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 839 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 856 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
372 picks · 965 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
Team Aster 48%9Pandas 52%
The model gave 52% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
62% · 127 games49% · 53 games
SvenRAMZES666
Sven
Puck
PuckSumaiL
43% · 208 games47% · 39 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
58% · 165 games53% · 66 games
LycanMieRo
Lycan
Lion
LionKaka
55% · 88 games44% · 331 game
RubickAntares
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFantasy
47% · 77 games44% · 176 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Team Aster 46%9Pandas 54%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
47% · 144 games53% · 230 games
DoomRAMZES666
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
50% · 264 games54% · 7 games
Meepokiyotaka
Meepo
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
43% · 104 games50% · 80 games
LycanMieRo
Lycan
Batrider
BatriderKaka
51% · 280 games41% · 423 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFantasy
52% · 62 games63% · 114 games
OracleSolo
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct26:20
Team Aster 46%9Pandas 54%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
51% · 178 games51% · 354 games
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
50% · 317 games47% · 38 games
Tinkerkiyotaka
Tinker
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 116 games52% · 293 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixKaka
47% · 90 games51% · 410 games
DoomAntares
Doom
Rubick
RubickFantasy
49% · 488 games51% · 94 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 55%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3