The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
APAntarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tiny
BoBoKa · 17 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 8 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 8 games
Leshracsignature
Ori · 8 games
Antarctic Penguins
Rubick
FelixCiaoBa · 13 games
Tinysignature
Kaka · 13 games
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 9 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
XCJ · 9 games
Tusk
FelixCiaoBa · 8 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
eGo · 7 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
739 picks · 464 bans
Tusk
614 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
574 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 575 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 235 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 388 bans
Nature's Prophet
379 picks · 560 bans
Death Prophet
375 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:8
Team Aster 71%Antarctic Penguins 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMonet
TerrorbladeeGo
BeastmasterXxs
Ember SpiritAlaCrity
TinyXwy
SnapfireFelixCiaoBa
PhoenixBoBoKa
UndyingXCJ
MiranaFantasy
Game 2prediction correct21:10
Team Aster 68%Antarctic Penguins 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerMonet
BristlebackeGo
PuckXwy
PangolierAlaCrity
EnigmaXxs
Earth SpiritFelixCiaoBa
RubickFantasy
Treant ProtectorXCJ
TinyBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 83%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2