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Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
71%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
82%
Lich
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 11 games
73%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
45%

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Fantasy · 6 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
TK · 5 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 325 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
411 picks · 600 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
348 picks · 420 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
344 picks · 777 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 182 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
269 picks · 450 bans
56%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
265 picks · 387 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
245 picks · 335 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Team Aster 65%Aster.Aries 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 21:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
59% · 104 games41% · 147 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Razor
RazorOri
58% · 103 games49% · 166 games
KunkkaUlu
Kunkka
Magnus
MagnusXxs
50% · 76 games51% · 58 games
Broodmotherphoenix
Broodmother
Io
IoBoBoKa
48% · 84 games46% · 128 games
Tusk生死
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireFantasy
53% · 147 games42% · 15 games
LichRedPanda
Lich
Game 2prediction missed14:38
Team Aster 66%Aster.Aries 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
55% · 209 games56% · 151 game
Templar AssassinWhite丶Album
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaOri
53% · 224 games53% · 134 games
RazorUlu
Razor
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerXxs
54% · 141 game46% · 395 games
Mars生死
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
46% · 181 game52% · 171 game
WeaverRedPanda
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFantasy
40% · 325 games43% · 229 games
Snapfirephoenix
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct10:39
Team Aster 77%Aster.Aries 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 77%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3