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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 1:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Save- · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nightfall · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1008 picks · 715 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
619 picks · 456 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
588 picks · 444 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
553 picks · 890 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 385 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
510 picks · 358 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
504 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
502 picks · 1192 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:8
Team Aster 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
58% · 90 games50% · 106 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
43% · 50 games46% · 178 games
SnapfireResolut1on
Snapfire
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
49% · 85 games61% · 143 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
48% · 142 games48% · 52 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFantasy
48% · 214 games47% · 102 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1