The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 25 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 24 games
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
669 picks · 455 bans
Techies
643 picks · 682 bans
Doom
575 picks · 1119 bans
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
494 picks · 1039 bans
Disruptor
486 picks · 460 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 714 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 906 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:4
Team Aster 58%Blacklist International 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:03.
Game 2prediction correct12:3
Team Aster 58%Blacklist International 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 19:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2