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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
63%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 16 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 12 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lwwnb · 8 games
63%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 7 games
29%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Night · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Lwwnb · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
362 picks · 343 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
347 picks · 339 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
255 picks · 246 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
229 picks · 190 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
228 picks · 149 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 538 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 418 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
195 picks · 116 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total89% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Team Aster 75%EHOME 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMonet
55% · 249 games47% · 222 games
Morphlingmks-
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
53% · 203 games48% · 421 game
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyXwy
47% · 522 games48% · 461 game
Marsxiaoyu154
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireBoBoKa
49% · 300 games45% · 235 games
Keeper of the LightCatYou
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
60% · 257 games46% · 192 games
Nyx AssassinLwwnb
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct28:6
Team Aster 75%EHOME 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMonet
43% · 157 games43% · 44 games
Drow Rangermks-
Drow Ranger
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
49% · 50 games53% · 148 games
Marcixiaoyu154
Marci
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
45% · 216 games60% · 170 games
Dragon KnightNight
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
51% · 127 games51% · 160 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Sven
SvenFantasy
59% · 61 game48% · 89 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 89%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2