PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 16 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
Phoenix
BoBoKa · 11 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
695 picks · 506 bans
Puck
503 picks · 981 bans
Dawnbreaker
408 picks · 523 bans
Snapfire
388 picks · 200 bans
Marci
380 picks · 692 bans
Winter Wyvern
324 picks · 312 bans
Zeus
293 picks · 315 bans
Monkey King
292 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:9
Team Aster 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:28.
Game 2prediction correct3:25
Team Aster 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 25:40.
Game 3prediction missed28:30
Team Aster 49%Entity 51%
The model gave 51% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Aster in 55:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 51%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3