The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tiny
BoBoKa · 18 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 9 games
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 8 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 450 bans
Tusk
600 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 449 bans
Treant Protector
506 picks · 561 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 224 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 386 bans
Nature's Prophet
367 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:31
Team Aster 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Entity in 1:15:29.
Game 2prediction correct21:9
Team Aster 57%Entity 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2