PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 11 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 505 bans
Puck
497 picks · 987 bans
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 517 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 196 bans
Marci
375 picks · 684 bans
Winter Wyvern
323 picks · 306 bans
Mars
312 picks · 529 bans
Monkey King
302 picks · 632 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
Team Aster 61%Fnatic 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 56:42.
Game 2prediction correct16:2
Team Aster 61%Fnatic 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 21:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 61%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2