Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 10 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Chensignature
LaNm · 8 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 8 games
Lunaoften banned
Monet · 8 games
iG Vitality
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Clinkz
ukiyo · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
375 picks · 544 bans
Bane
346 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 208 bans
Weaver
330 picks · 714 bans
Monkey King
252 picks · 756 bans
Tidehunter
240 picks · 382 bans
Disruptor
239 picks · 155 bans
Io
236 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:26
Team Aster 49%iG Vitality 51%
The model gave 51% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMonet
Morphlingukiyo
Void SpiritOri
PuckButterflyEffect
MarsXxs
IoDogf1ghts
PhoenixBoBoKa
Dark WillowQYQX
SnapfireFantasy
Game 2prediction missed7:21
Team Aster 51%iG Vitality 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 23:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordMonet
Morphlingukiyo
BeastmasterXxs
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
RazorOri
IoDogf1ghts
WindrangerBoBoKa
BaneQYQX
Treant ProtectorFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2