Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pangolier
Xxs · 12 games
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
Windranger
BoBoKa · 11 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CatYou · 2 games
Tusk
CatYou · 2 games
Iooften banned
CatYou · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
388 picks · 279 bans
Mars
376 picks · 543 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
306 picks · 714 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 341 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 311 bans
Kunkka
233 picks · 394 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% LBZS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Team Aster 59%LBZS 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMonet
LeshracShanks
Shadow FiendOri
Night StalkerMolasses
Spirit BreakerXxs
IoCatYou
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
SnapfireFantasy
Game 2prediction correct38:21
Team Aster 64%LBZS 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMonet
Storm SpiritShanks
KunkkaOri
Dragon KnightMolasses
MarsXxs
IoCatYou
LionBoBoKa
BaneFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 73%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2