Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 21 game
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 15 games
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Tusk
CatYou · 5 games
Iooften banned
CatYou · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Mirana
CatYou · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
465 picks · 310 bans
Queen of Pain
426 picks · 528 bans
Weaver
377 picks · 564 bans
Mars
368 picks · 512 bans
Kunkka
299 picks · 494 bans
Spirit Breaker
279 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
258 picks · 345 bans
Snapfire
253 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:4
Team Aster 69%LBZS 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 23:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMonet
RazorShanks
KunkkaOri
TidehunterMolasses
PangolierXxs
RubickCatYou
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
GrimstrokeFantasy
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Team Aster 67%LBZS 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMonet
Queen of PainShanks
Storm SpiritOri
Dragon KnightMolasses
PangolierXxs
Skywrath MageCatYou
EnchantressBoBoKa
GrimstrokeFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 80%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2