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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 9 games
33%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 17 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 964 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 556 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 709 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 570 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 300 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 284 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 143 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:13
Team Aster 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMonet
64% · 6 games57% · 61 game
JuggernautAme
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
48% · 36 games71% · 6 games
BroodmotherFaith_bian
Broodmother
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
52% · 41 game54% · 42 games
TinyNothingToSay
Tiny
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
43% · 77 games43% · 49 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLaNm
50% · 4 games43% · 6 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed13:13
Team Aster 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMonet
49% · 113 games49% · 42 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Leshrac
LeshracWhite丶Album
51% · 43 games50% · 106 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
44% · 29 games44% · 11 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Snapfire
SnapfireBoBoKa
51% · 34 games66% · 17 games
DisruptorXinQ
Disruptor
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLaNm
44% · 5 games50% · 48 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2