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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 23 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
LaNm · 14 games
64%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
78%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 184 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 129 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 630 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
304 picks · 678 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 467 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
290 picks · 517 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
274 picks · 350 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
263 picks · 352 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total65% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:31
Team Aster 41%LGD Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
57% · 84 games53% · 85 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperWhite丶Album
43% · 77 games53% · 60 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
48% · 131 game48% · 120 games
PangolierXiao8
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerBoBoKa
55% · 43 games46% · 105 games
Winter WyvernXinQ
Winter Wyvern
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLaNm
56% · 187 games42% · 152 games
Hoodwinky`
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct9:10
Team Aster 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 13:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
47% · 130 games52% · 146 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorMonet
50% · 62 games50% · 158 games
PangolierXiao8
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
46% · 55 games49% · 117 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernBoBoKa
51% · 93 games36% · 6 games
TechiesXinQ
Techies
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLaNm
53% · 150 games52% · 63 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 65%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2