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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:3
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:3
OGwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 29 games
76%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 18 games
89%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 18 games
72%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 14 games
71%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 14 games
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%

OG

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 25 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 20 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 19 games
74%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 17 games
35%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
735 picks · 568 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
526 picks · 1051 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
470 picks · 622 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
433 picks · 775 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 405 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 378 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
324 picks · 614 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:20
Team Aster 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by OG in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMonet
43% · 38 games48% · 30 games
Shadow Fiendbzm
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainOri
55% · 201 game54% · 84 games
BristlebackYuragi
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaXxs
52% · 59 games50% · 353 games
MarsATF
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleFantasy
53% · 41 game46% · 84 games
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
49% · 238 games44% · 26 games
OmniknightChuvash
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed33:44
Team Aster 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by OG in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMonet
46% · 127 games48% · 190 games
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckOri
47% · 300 games50% · 363 games
MarsATF
Mars
Visage
VisageXxs
57% · 89 games50% · 286 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
50% · 402 games53% · 139 games
Nyx AssassinTaiga
Nyx Assassin
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
49% · 85 games54% · 25 games
TechiesChuvash
Techies
Game 3prediction missed18:36
Team Aster 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by OG in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
53% · 126 games48% · 168 games
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsXxs
49% · 272 games55% · 356 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Tiny
TinyOri
52% · 244 games51% · 98 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoBoKa
43% · 130 games55% · 219 games
Shadow DemonChuvash
Shadow Demon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFantasy
43% · 190 games53% · 121 game
Dark WillowTaiga
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultOG 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3