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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 16 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
White丶Album · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
77%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
488 picks · 349 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 646 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
380 picks · 471 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
376 picks · 825 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 191 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
296 picks · 497 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 442 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 349 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total64% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:19
Team Aster 64%Royal Never Give Up 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:47.
Game 2prediction missed16:35
Team Aster 64%Royal Never Give Up 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 36:11.
Game 3prediction missed16:22
Team Aster 64%Royal Never Give Up 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 28:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 64%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3