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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 22 games
68%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 20 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
BoBoKa · 19 games
63%

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 630 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 536 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
537 picks · 1065 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1330 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
463 picks · 958 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1173 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
460 picks · 488 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
440 picks · 633 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:15
Team Aster 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageMonet
54% · 49 games59% · 115 games
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Doom
DoomXxs
48% · 166 games49% · 81 game
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Snapfire
SnapfireSumaiL
46% · 228 games53% · 32 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
46% · 151 game46% · 52 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Venomancer
VenomancerFantasy
57% · 44 games48% · 358 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Game 2prediction correct46:36
Team Aster 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanMonet
60% · 95 games46% · 192 games
Void SpiritMiracle-
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusXxs
41% · 142 games53% · 85 games
JuggernautArteezy
Juggernaut
Snapfire
SnapfireSumaiL
47% · 293 games56% · 329 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
52% · 239 games47% · 218 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Lich
LichFantasy
51% · 142 games50% · 87 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2