ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 27 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Talon Esports
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
718 picks · 537 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1015 bans
Dawnbreaker
446 picks · 561 bans
Marci
422 picks · 752 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 192 bans
Winter Wyvern
349 picks · 372 bans
Zeus
315 picks · 357 bans
Razor
301 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Team Aster 63%Talon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackMonet
Sniper23savage
ViperXxs
Storm SpiritMikoto
PuckOri
Brewmasterkpii
GrimstrokeFantasy
Earth SpiritQ
TinyBoBoKa
IoHyde
Game 2prediction correct28:12
Team Aster 68%Talon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorOri
Faceless Void23savage
BloodseekerMonet
Void SpiritMikoto
EnigmaXxs
SnapfireQ
DazzleFantasy
Alchemistkpii
TinyBoBoKa
DawnbreakerHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 76%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2