Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
Disruptor
Fantasy · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 15 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
436 picks · 1049 bans
Doom
423 picks · 693 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 994 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:5
Team Aster 76%Team Bright 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMonet
Magnusphoenix
BeastmasterXxs
AxeIrving
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Shadow DemonUndyne_
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
SilencerFantasy
Game 2prediction correct22:8
Team Aster 74%Team Bright 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 18:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusMonet
Spirit BreakerIrving
DoomXxs
Ember Spiritphoenix
SnapfireSumaiL
PudgeUndyne_
TechiesBoBoKa
OracleFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 89%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2