ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam Marsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 9 games
Team Mars
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
Puck
428 picks · 929 bans
Mars
365 picks · 587 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 185 bans
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 396 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 459 bans
Bane
320 picks · 196 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Aster 91%Team Mars 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Aster 91%Team Mars 9%
The model gave 91% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 91%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2