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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 30 games
73%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 16 games
94%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 16 games
69%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 14 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ori · 12 games
75%

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Nisha · 10 games
60%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 8 games
38%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
731 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
518 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
451 picks · 581 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
366 picks · 195 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
359 picks · 388 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
315 picks · 621 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:55
Team Aster 53%Team Secret 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMonet
60% · 205 games45% · 235 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderOri
53% · 130 games46% · 362 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Mars
MarsXxs
52% · 446 games43% · 174 games
DawnbreakerResolut1on
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixBoBoKa
58% · 108 games44% · 155 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Enchantress
EnchantressFantasy
54% · 147 games45% · 110 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Team Aster 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
53% · 216 games52% · 183 games
TimbersawNisha
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaXxs
55% · 44 games48% · 223 games
Queen of PainResolut1on
Queen of Pain
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
42% · 102 games53% · 164 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
48% · 223 games57% · 90 games
Dark WillowPuppey
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFantasy
44% · 187 games49% · 112 games
Ogre MagiZayac
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2