The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 14 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 14 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 10 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 5 games
Linaoften banned
MoOz · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
298 picks · 177 bans
Mars
286 picks · 398 bans
Lina
279 picks · 549 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Hoodwink
249 picks · 89 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 257 bans
Tidehunter
234 picks · 397 bans
Luna
223 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 12%
Hero pool strength64% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total76% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Team Aster 67%Thunder Awaken 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMonet
LifestealerMnz
LinaWhite丶Album
Void SpiritLeostyle
Legion CommanderXxs
MarsFrank
LichLaNm
DisruptorMoOz
Monkey KingBoBoKa
PhoenixMjz
Game 2prediction correct29:13
Team Aster 65%Thunder Awaken 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracWhite丶Album
Phantom AssassinMnz
SlarkMonet
LinaLeostyle
MarsXxs
Dark SeerFrank
WeaverBoBoKa
Bounty HunterMoOz
TidehunterLaNm
MagnusMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 76%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2