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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 32 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 20 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 16 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ori · 11 games
73%

TSM

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 13 games
77%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 13 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 9 games
89%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 386 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
434 picks · 667 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 462 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
285 picks · 687 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 394 bans
46%
Undying
Undying
262 picks · 472 bans
56%
Chen
Chen
248 picks · 508 bans
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 331 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:3
Team Aster 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
50% · 54 games49% · 45 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Visage
VisageXxs
57% · 151 game50% · 360 games
Tinybryle-
Tiny
Puck
PuckOri
54% · 289 games42% · 228 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
55% · 267 games52% · 52 games
Dark WillowMoonMeander
Dark Willow
Sven
SvenFantasy
55% · 58 games37% · 134 games
ClockwerkDuBu
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct24:14
Team Aster 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
28% · 22 games53% · 57 games
Shadow Fiendbryle-
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracOri
41% · 54 games55% · 38 games
PudgeTimado
Pudge
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
48% · 27 games61% · 110 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireBoBoKa
48% · 185 games51% · 103 games
RubickMoonMeander
Rubick
Sven
SvenFantasy
57% · 32 games44% · 12 games
Ancient ApparitionDuBu
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 69%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2