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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 22 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 24 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 21 game
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 20 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 19 games
58%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 19 games
47%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
438 picks · 181 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
324 picks · 125 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
319 picks · 627 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
315 picks · 692 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 478 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 526 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
269 picks · 340 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 361 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total55% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Team Aster 48%Vici Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
49% · 128 games56% · 175 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
Luna
LunaMonet
55% · 84 games56% · 169 games
TidehunterELeVeN
Tidehunter
Puck
PuckWhite丶Album
47% · 455 games44% · 319 games
Void SpiritOri
Void Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
49% · 222 games45% · 191 game
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionLaNm
48% · 230 games51% · 265 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct31:32
Team Aster 45%Vici Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMonet
46% · 48 games54% · 96 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWhite丶Album
59% · 69 games53% · 54 games
DoomELeVeN
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
56% · 83 games41% · 77 games
Dragon KnightOri
Dragon Knight
Dazzle
DazzleLaNm
little data51% · 39 games
BrewmasterPyw
Brewmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
40% · 99 games53% · 33 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 55%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2