Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ybb Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 11 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 11 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
825 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
598 picks · 409 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 418 bans
Nature's Prophet
483 picks · 788 bans
Death Prophet
436 picks · 898 bans
Snapfire
429 picks · 305 bans
Clockwerk
380 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:22
Team Aster 79%Ybb Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 52:55.
Game 2prediction missed14:22
Team Aster 79%Ybb Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 32:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 79%
Series resultYbb Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2