?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Aureuswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 11 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 8 games
88%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Natsumi · 6 games
83%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 16 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
64%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 14 games
57%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 10 games
80%
Sven
Svensignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
437 picks · 411 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
423 picks · 214 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 919 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 367 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
290 picks · 143 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 224 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
279 picks · 670 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 850 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aureus
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
Team Aureus 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
51% · 367 games55% · 294 games
Dragon KnightPalos
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
45% · 448 games50% · 409 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Abaddon
AbaddonForce
47% · 216 games50% · 364 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenSkem
61% · 169 games48% · 97 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
43% · 213 games50% · 249 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed35:21
Team Aureus 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration in 50:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciNatsumi
49% · 190 games50% · 171 game
BristlebackPalos
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
52% · 223 games45% · 262 games
PuckBob
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaForce
55% · 127 games44% · 123 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
54% · 101 game47% · 127 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Alchemist
AlchemistTims
58% · 125 games46% · 83 games
Banecml
Bane
Game 3prediction correct34:11
Team Aureus 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYopaj
48% · 214 games50% · 246 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNatsumi
54% · 342 games49% · 459 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Bristleback
BristlebackForce
58% · 348 games46% · 232 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Tusk
TuskTims
48% · 380 games48% · 176 games
DisruptorShanks
Disruptor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
47% · 87 games51% · 258 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 63%
Series resultTeam Aureus 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3