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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
11Monkeyzloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Excalibur · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Excalibur · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
bengan · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
29%

11Monkeyz

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 441 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
474 picks · 698 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 297 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 535 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 600 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 601 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
351 picks · 515 bans
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
341 picks · 762 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
Team Bald Reborn 60%11Monkeyz 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 31:14.
Game 2prediction correct33:30
Team Bald Reborn 60%11Monkeyz 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 42:46.
Game 3prediction correct41:34
Team Bald Reborn 60%11Monkeyz 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 1:18:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 60%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3