Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Hoodwink
Pablo · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Pablo · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
bengan · 2 games
Visageoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
Witch Doctor
bengan · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Gorgc · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 1 game
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
425 picks · 429 bans
Rubick
408 picks · 277 bans
Tiny
404 picks · 387 bans
Mirana
309 picks · 314 bans
Treant Protector
272 picks · 319 bans
Snapfire
247 picks · 131 bans
Crystal Maiden
221 picks · 155 bans
Ember Spirit
221 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% D2 Hustlers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Team Bald Reborn 37%D2 Hustlers 63%
The model gave 63% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 50:27.
Game 2prediction correct8:26
Team Bald Reborn 37%D2 Hustlers 63%
The model gave 63% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 29:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 63%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2