Team Bald Reborn vs Into The Breach — prediction DPC2S—ЗЕ 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2

series probability

56%44%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Into The Breachwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Snapfire

Pablo · 11 games

55%

Juggernautsignature

Gorgc · 10 games

70%

Pangolieroften banned

Rajjix · 10 games

30%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Excalibur · 9 games

22%

Tiny

Excalibur · 9 games

56%

Dragon Knightsignature

Excalibur · 8 games

63%

Grimstroke

bengan · 8 games

50%

Hoodwink

Pablo · 8 games

38%

Into The Breach

Marsoften banned

Xibbe · 8 games

50%

Snapfiresignature

Era · 8 games

63%

Banesignature

5up · 6 games

67%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Era · 6 games

33%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Era · 5 games

60%

Queen of Painoften banned

Supream^ · 5 games

80%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Bor@nija · 5 games

80%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Supream^ · 4 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

464 picks · 637 bans

48%

Tiny

450 picks · 434 bans

49%

Bane

446 picks · 269 bans

56%

Sand King

409 picks · 560 bans

54%

Storm Spirit

397 picks · 639 bans

56%

Dragon Knight

394 picks · 477 bans

52%

Pangolier

358 picks · 555 bans

53%

Keeper of the Light

331 picks · 656 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%

Hero pool strength53% Into The Breach

Head-to-head1 – 1

Model total56% Team Bald Reborn

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct30:14

Team Bald Reborn 53%Into The Breach 47%

The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 32:37.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

JuggernautGorgc

47% · 49 games54% · 142 games

RazorOtaker