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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Tusk
Tusk
Pablo · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 6 games
17%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
w33 · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
bengan · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ZipZaper · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
bengan · 5 games
20%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
bengan · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 4 games
25%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 20 games
85%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 16 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 11 games
82%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 10 games
90%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
677 picks · 430 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
583 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 443 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
485 picks · 542 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 209 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 531 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
342 picks · 492 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 79%
Hero pool strength69% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total86% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Team Bald Reborn 25%PSG Quest 75%
The model gave 75% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 25:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepow33
little data56% · 111 games
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Nature's Prophet
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGorgc
45% · 103 games50% · 185 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierZipZaper
52% · 338 games52% · 83 games
BroodmotherWuiter
Broodmother
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
52% · 84 games51% · 233 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Silencer
Silencerbengan
43% · 179 games51% · 92 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct9:27
Team Bald Reborn 27%PSG Quest 73%
The model gave 73% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 18:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaGorgc
49% · 169 games50% · 139 games
SlarkTA2000
Slark
Batrider
Batriderw33
54% · 264 games49% · 119 games
TidehunterWuiter
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerZipZaper
50% · 101 game49% · 565 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Rubick
RubickPablo
48% · 483 games46% · 262 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorbengan
56% · 293 games49% · 225 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 86%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2