Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 11 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 9 games
Snapfire
Pablo · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Pablo · 7 games
Winter Bear
Omniknightoften banned
Flash · 7 games
Gyrocopter
Exotic Deer · 5 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Exotic Deer · 4 games
Tusk
Ekki · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
Ekki · 3 games
Clockwerk
Ekki · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ekki · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
467 picks · 501 bans
Mars
465 picks · 643 bans
Bane
438 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 603 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 815 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Team Bald Reborn 54%Winter Bear 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorGorgc
RubickNO_Chanc3
TinyExcalibur
MarsZipZaper
SnapfirePablo
Banebengan
Game 2prediction correct39:20
Team Bald Reborn 50%Winter Bear 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautGorgc
Death ProphetNO_Chanc3
Dragon KnightExcalibur
Night StalkerZipZaper
SnapfirePablo
Lichbengan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 56%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2