PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Barswin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
LTLiterium Teamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bars
No games played over 6 months.
Literium Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 614 bans
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Mars
370 picks · 576 bans
Techies
367 picks · 294 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 732 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 351 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Bars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
Team Bars 52%Literium Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Bars — the game was taken by Team Bars in 25:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bars · 52%
Series resultTeam Bars 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1