Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Barsloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
NNNice NPwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bars
No games played over 6 months.
Nice NP
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 494 bans
Mars
303 picks · 426 bans
Techies
286 picks · 207 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 417 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nice NP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Team Bars 47%Nice NP 53%
The model gave 53% on Nice NP — the game was taken by Nice NP in 25:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteNice NP · 53%
Series resultNice NP 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1