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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Blinkwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Blink

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
smN · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 1 game
100%

KZ TEAM

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 9 games
44%
Viper
Vipersignature
W1sh- · 9 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 346 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
328 picks · 303 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
272 picks · 510 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 569 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
250 picks · 463 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
237 picks · 600 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
220 picks · 122 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 344 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Blink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:35
Team Blink 51%KZ TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Blink — the game was taken by Team Blink in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorsmN
56% · 18 games35% · 13 games
BatriderG.T.I
Batrider
67% · 5 games
Dark SeerMr. Luck
Dark Seer
Game 2prediction correct9:36
Team Blink 45%KZ TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Elder Titan
Elder TitansmN
28% · 13 games75% · 8 games
Death ProphetMr. Luck
Death Prophet
67% · 5 games
TuskG.T.I
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct29:19
Team Blink 53%KZ TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Blink — the game was taken by Team Blink in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranasmN
59% · 83 games37% · 23 games
TidehunterMr. Luck
Tidehunter
45% · 60 games
TuskG.T.I
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Blink · 52%
Series resultTeam Blink 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3