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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Blinkloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sigma.YNTwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Blink

Silencer
Silencer
smN · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 3 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
kAAN · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
smN · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemist
kAAN · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
smN · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
0%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 25 games
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 10 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
827 picks · 583 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
601 picks · 412 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
519 picks · 545 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 417 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
487 picks · 792 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
438 picks · 913 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
387 picks · 287 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
Team Blink 38%Sigma.YNT 62%
The model gave 62% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlayme
42% · 137 games61% · 26 games
Naga SirenDarkLord^
Naga Siren
Magnus
MagnusBliNcc
48% · 43 games45% · 27 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesAstral
45% · 58 games56% · 97 games
Death Prophetkur0patbI4
Death Prophet
57% · 39 games
Monkey Kingqueezy
Monkey King
57% · 49 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed37:18
Team Blink 43%Sigma.YNT 57%
The model gave 57% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Team Blink in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinglayme
54% · 218 games42% · 111 games
Naga SirenDarkLord^
Naga Siren
Enigma
EnigmaBliNcc
53% · 272 games59% · 73 games
Sniperforyou
Sniper
Tusk
TuskAstral
49% · 463 games44% · 227 games
Ember Spiritkur0patbI4
Ember Spirit
44% · 369 games
RubickVANSKOR
Rubick
50% · 173 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct16:33
Team Blink 40%Sigma.YNT 60%
The model gave 60% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlayme
50% · 61 game53% · 142 games
Nature's ProphetDarkLord^
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsBliNcc
42% · 193 games46% · 21 game
Outworld Destroyerforyou
Outworld Destroyer
Tusk
TuskAstral
49% · 369 games57% · 161 game
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
Beastmaster
53% · 143 games
Monkey Kingqueezy
Monkey King
54% · 156 games
UndyingVANSKOR
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 68%
Series resultSigma.YNT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3