DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Doomoften banned
Irving · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Silencer
Undyne_ · 5 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 4 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 427 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 350 bans
Phoenix
247 picks · 379 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
203 picks · 519 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:13
Team Bright 13%G2 Invictus Gaming 87%
The model gave 87% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Bright in 34:24.
Game 2prediction correct6:16
Team Bright 13%G2 Invictus Gaming 87%
The model gave 87% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 26:48.
Game 3prediction correct6:34
Team Bright 13%G2 Invictus Gaming 87%
The model gave 87% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 37:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 87%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3