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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 8 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 8 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
niu · 7 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
Pyw · 6 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
niu · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 492 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
281 picks · 427 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
275 picks · 238 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
265 picks · 181 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 350 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 719 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
242 picks · 391 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total84% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
Team Bright 29%LGD Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
51% · 103 games47% · 103 games
Alchemistshiro
Alchemist
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidUlu
51% · 209 games50% · 145 games
PuckSetsu
Puck
Magnus
MagnusIrving
46% · 218 games51% · 178 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaRedPanda
49% · 208 games50% · 206 games
BatriderPyw
Batrider
59% · 106 games
Vengeful Spirity`
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct8:30
Team Bright 31%LGD Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlu
56% · 178 games50% · 106 games
Alchemistshiro
Alchemist
Magnus
MagnusButterflyEffect
50% · 262 games47% · 264 games
Doomniu
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
50% · 195 games47% · 132 games
PuckSetsu
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRedPanda
55% · 228 games52% · 226 games
TechiesPyw
Techies
39% · 135 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 84%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2