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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MAG.Yololoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
64%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%

MAG.Yolo

Medusa
Medusaoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
100%
Techies
Techies
czy · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
czy · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titanoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
出省 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 494 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
284 picks · 426 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
275 picks · 240 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
268 picks · 182 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 349 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 721 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
244 picks · 393 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:38
Team Bright 56%MAG.Yolo 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bright — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlu
59% · 129 games47% · 133 games
WindrangerRA1NCLOUD
Windranger
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
46% · 145 games51% · 211 games
Enchantress出省
Enchantress
Doom
DoomIrving
50% · 206 games51% · 266 games
Batriderczy
Batrider
Tusk
TuskRedPanda
46% · 130 games
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Team Bright 58%MAG.Yolo 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 77 games54% · 109 games
LunaRA1NCLOUD
Luna
Ursa
UrsaUlu
49% · 33 games46% · 149 games
Lionczy
Lion
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerIrving
48% · 105 games55% · 112 games
Vengeful Spirit出省
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickRedPanda
45% · 155 games
Game 3prediction correct31:12
Team Bright 56%MAG.Yolo 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 20:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusButterflyEffect
48% · 58 games58% · 216 games
Nature's ProphetRA1NCLOUD
Nature's Prophet
Naga Siren
Naga SirenUlu
49% · 115 games55% · 180 games
Clockwerk出省
Clockwerk
Enigma
EnigmaIrving
47% · 95 games45% · 101 game
Hoodwinkczy
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskRedPanda
44% · 229 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 63%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3