ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
THTeam Huskyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Doomoften banned
Irving · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
Silencer
Undyne_ · 5 games
Team Husky
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 603 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
220 picks · 188 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Team Bright 68%Team Husky 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 31:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 68%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1