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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Zerowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 8 games
25%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
TK · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 6 games
50%

Team Zero

Lion
Lion
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
zzq · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 9 games
67%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
BEYOND · 8 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
7e · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 693 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 609 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 387 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 746 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1034 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total76% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
Team Bright 35%Team Zero 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyukiyo
48% · 241 game47% · 77 games
Muertapoyoyo
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
48% · 192 games50% · 125 games
BrewmasterBEYOND
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTz.
60% · 231 game49% · 82 games
Slardar7e
Slardar
45% · 269 games
RubickPonlo
Rubick
51% · 111 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct4:21
Team Bright 35%Team Zero 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingukiyo
54% · 48 games48% · 191 game
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderTK
48% · 216 games53% · 73 games
Zeus7e
Zeus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTz.
47% · 161 game54% · 33 games
Juggernautpoyoyo
Juggernaut
48% · 107 games
Dark WillowPonlo
Dark Willow
54% · 21 game
Winter Wyvernzzq
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 76%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2