Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team CDMloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
iG Vitalitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team CDM
No games played over 6 months.
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Summer · 3 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Summer · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 2 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Sj · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Summer · 1 game
Jakiro
Sj · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 272 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
253 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 527 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 571 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 328 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:53
Team CDM 45%iG Vitality 55%
The model gave 55% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 31:45.
Game 2prediction correct11:32
Team CDM 45%iG Vitality 55%
The model gave 55% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 23:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 55%
Series resultiG Vitality 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2