Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Cloudloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Limitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Cloud
Tusk
mercy · 3 games
Dazzle
QYQX · 2 games
Marcioften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stariff · 2 games
Zeusoften banned
Dust · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
白也 · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Dust · 1 game
Limit
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 7 games
Tusksignature
Echo · 7 games
Tinysignature
Yds · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
478 picks · 315 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 460 bans
Tiny
457 picks · 406 bans
Mirana
334 picks · 331 bans
Treant Protector
324 picks · 378 bans
Snapfire
288 picks · 147 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 651 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 612 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 69%
Hero pool strength66% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:27
Team Cloud 32%Limit 68%
The model gave 68% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend1ce limit
Templar AssassinXm
PuckButterflyEffect
Death ProphetSrf
Pangoliercsj
TinyEcho
Keeper of the Lightmercy
TuskYds
Treant ProtectorStariff
LichVictoria
Game 2prediction correct23:31
Team Cloud 33%Limit 67%
The model gave 67% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 47:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling1ce limit
WeaverXm
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
Nature's ProphetSrf
Timbersawcsj
Primal BeastEcho
Tuskmercy
MiranaYds
DawnbreakerStariff
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 78%
Series resultLimit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2