Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Cloudloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Disillusionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Cloud
Tusk
mercy · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Stariff · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
csj · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stariff · 3 games
Zeusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Dazzle
QYQX · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Team Disillusion
Snapfire
Eren · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
天命 · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Hoodwink
Sj · 2 games
Marcioften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Rubick
Eren · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
575 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
521 picks · 511 bans
Tiny
514 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
400 picks · 469 bans
Mirana
371 picks · 359 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 179 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 196 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 737 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Disillusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:69
Team Cloud 41%Team Disillusion 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 1:01:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King1ce limit
Death ProphetKilla
PuckButterflyEffect
TuskEren
Marcicsj
Phoenixmercy
SvenStariff
Game 2prediction correct25:17
Team Cloud 41%Team Disillusion 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
Slark1ce limit
RubickEren
Legion Commandercsj
Hoodwinkmercy
Treant ProtectorStariff
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Disillusion · 65%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2