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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Denwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TeamDkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Den

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Demon · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Mjz · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Underlord
Underlord
Frank · 1 game
0%

TeamDk

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Cara · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
FeelinG · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Cara · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
FeelinG · 1 game
0%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
487 picks · 446 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
484 picks · 569 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
452 picks · 232 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
351 picks · 715 bans
46%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 730 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
315 picks · 493 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 258 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
293 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% TeamDk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% TeamDk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:10
Team Den 46%TeamDk 54%
The model gave 54% on TeamDk — the game was taken by Team Den in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWits
46% · 91 game56% · 136 games
DoomSatoshi-
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetDemon
48% · 87 games46% · 61 game
WarlockCara
Warlock
Slardar
SlardarFrank
43% · 45 games56% · 67 games
Shadow ShamanFeelinG
Shadow Shaman
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMjz
49% · 41 game
Game 2prediction missed29:22
Team Den 47%TeamDk 53%
The model gave 53% on TeamDk — the game was taken by Team Den in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWits
48% · 146 games54% · 60 games
DawnbreakerSatoshi-
Dawnbreaker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFrank
50% · 93 games44% · 235 games
PhoenixFeelinG
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroMjz
52% · 172 games50% · 153 games
Ancient ApparitionCara
Ancient Apparition
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightDemon
55% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamDk · 57%
Series resultTeam Den 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2