Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 11 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
iG Vitality
Jakirosignature
Sj · 10 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 8 games
Disruptor
Drink · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 7 games
Tusksignature
Drink · 7 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
dolem · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 696 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 480 bans
Nature's Prophet
598 picks · 952 bans
Tusk
548 picks · 432 bans
Snapfire
533 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
525 picks · 393 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1196 bans
Clockwerk
503 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Team Disillusion 53%iG Vitality 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterKilla
Lycandolem
MiranaEren
Ember SpiritAsh
51% · 61 game
Night Stalkerukiyo
48% · 131 game
Monkey KingDrink
46% · 303 games
RubickSj
Game 2prediction missed20:4
Team Disillusion 49%iG Vitality 51%
The model gave 51% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 18:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomKilla
Monkey Kingukiyo
HoodwinkEren
Templar AssassinAsh
49% · 83 games
Batriderdolem
49% · 35 games
Nyx AssassinDrink
51% · 45 games
JakiroSj
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 50%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2