Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Supernovawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Tusk
Eren · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
Rubick
sheep · 4 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
Tiny
sheep · 3 games
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
988 picks · 672 bans
Tiny
660 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
595 picks · 951 bans
Tusk
561 picks · 436 bans
Snapfire
531 picks · 353 bans
Treant Protector
519 picks · 517 bans
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1130 bans
Clockwerk
491 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:18
Team Disillusion 47%Supernova 53%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomKilla
Tinysheep
MiranaEren
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Team Disillusion 49%Supernova 51%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterKilla
Phoenixsheep
RubickEren
Game 3prediction correct21:49
Team Disillusion 48%Supernova 52%
The model gave 52% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterKilla
Tinysheep
RubickEren
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 55%
Series resultSupernova 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3