Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Invokersignature
RCY · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
Tinkersignature
RCY · 10 games
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 28 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
dnm · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 14 games
Silencer
albinozebra · 13 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
albinozebra · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
785 picks · 534 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 686 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 297 bans
Death Prophet
391 picks · 759 bans
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 816 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 42%
Hero pool strength57% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:37
Team DogChamp 46%5RATFORCESTAFF 54%
The model gave 54% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderRCY
Sniperdnm
BloodseekerSunlight
Void Spiritred2
RubickFrancisLee
BroodmotherSpeeed
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
HoodwinkMoOz
54% · 251 game
ClockwerkGiant
Game 2prediction missed36:24
Team DogChamp 47%5RATFORCESTAFF 53%
The model gave 53% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 55:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetSunlight
Shadow Fienddnm
Storm SpiritRCY
LycanSpeeed
Monkey KingFrancisLee
Pangolierred2
ClockwerkBloody Nine
HoodwinkMoOz
49% · 293 games
TuskGiant
Game 3prediction missed40:30
Team DogChamp 45%5RATFORCESTAFF 55%
The model gave 55% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 56:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRCY
Pangolierred2
SnapfireSunlight
Alchemistdnm
Monkey KingFrancisLee
Death ProphetSpeeed
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Earth SpiritMoOz
51% · 141 game
DisruptorGiant
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 63%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3