Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Byzantine Raidersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Rubick
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Enchantress
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Byzantine Raiders
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
204 picks · 444 bans
Mars
181 picks · 337 bans
Void Spirit
174 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
172 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
146 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
139 picks · 233 bans
Nyx Assassin
130 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
125 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 69%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect