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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
80%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 9 games
78%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%

Fart Studios

Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 8 games
38%
Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Sonic · 7 games
29%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
BSJ · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
679 picks · 430 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
582 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 442 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
485 picks · 544 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 383 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
382 picks · 209 bans
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 532 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
343 picks · 493 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
Team DogChamp 58%Fart Studios 42%
The model gave 58% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
50% · 124 games54% · 146 games
BloodseekerBSJ
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
52% · 348 games54% · 151 game
Broodmothermonkeys-forever
Broodmother
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerITALIANO GANGSTA
53% · 60 games52% · 403 games
TuskiAnnihilate
Tusk
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBloody Nine
44% · 238 games46% · 264 games
HoodwinkNewsham
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickGiant
47% · 332 games52% · 138 games
Winter WyvernJenkins
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Team DogChamp 59%Fart Studios 41%
The model gave 59% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYuma
51% · 299 games50% · 146 games
Nature's ProphetBSJ
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
InvokerRCY
48% · 94 games50% · 103 games
Lycanmonkeys-forever
Lycan
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderITALIANO GANGSTA
54% · 63 games52% · 164 games
BatrideriAnnihilate
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBloody Nine
50% · 319 games51% · 349 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerGiant
43% · 210 games53% · 223 games
Treant ProtectorJenkins
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 64%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2