?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lucky Birdloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 19 games
68%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
FrancisLee · 8 games
63%

Lucky Bird

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
689 picks · 594 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 487 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
436 picks · 1080 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
434 picks · 770 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 1008 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 201 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 813 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
371 picks · 541 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Team DogChamp 59%Lucky Bird 41%
The model gave 59% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnusdnm
41% · 35 games51% · 138 games
Terrorbladeblessed kid
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomSpeeed
52% · 98 games56% · 91 game
TimbersawSatoshi-
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void Spiritred2
47% · 51 game
Clinkz
ClinkzMoOz
48% · 13 games
Lich
LichBloody Nine
47% · 32 games
Game 2prediction missed22:43
Team DogChamp 61%Lucky Bird 39%
The model gave 61% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomSpeeed
49% · 151 game48% · 144 games
Shadow Fiendblessed kid
Shadow Fiend
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerdnm
54% · 44 games51% · 235 games
BeastmasterSatoshi-
Beastmaster
Leshrac
Leshracred2
52% · 106 games
Clinkz
ClinkzMoOz
48% · 14 games
Lich
LichBloody Nine
46% · 64 games
Game 3prediction correct34:14
Team DogChamp 62%Lucky Bird 38%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritred2
50% · 48 games54% · 95 games
Bloodseekerblessed kid
Bloodseeker
Doom
DoomSpeeed
51% · 74 games47% · 98 games
UnderlordSatoshi-
Underlord
Magnus
Magnusdnm
44% · 24 games
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
43% · 34 games
Oracle
OracleBloody Nine
67% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 69%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3